What is the Addendum?
The Addendum to Plan Melbourne provides an update on Melbourne’s projected population, housing and employment growth. It supersedes the projections set out in Plan Melbourne 2017-2050 and provides an update on key land use and transport planning that has occurred since 2017.
The Addendum is to be read in addition to the existing Plan Melbourne strategy and implementation plan.
What does the Addendum say?
An Increase in the Population and Employment Forecast
The Addendum has identified that strong growth and population trends are exceeding previous projections outlined in Plan Melbourne. Consistent with Victoria in Future 2019 population forecasts, it estimates the 2051 resident population of metropolitan Melbourne will be 8.4 million people – or more than 500,000 more than estimated in 2017.
This equates to a need for an additional 1.6 million dwellings above current dwelling stock levels towards 2051 to accommodate the population increase.
It projects that Melbourne’s population aged 65 and over will increase from 13.7% to 18.5%, and an increase in the proportion of lone-person and couple only households.
In terms of employment, it is recognised that a higher number of jobs is expected in all metropolitan regions.
A better understanding of Commercial & Industrial Land needs
The Addendum includes strategies to respond to recent research not available at the time the strategy was drafted. It also acknowledges further strategies are outlined in the draft Melbourne industrial and commercial land use plan, which is currently out on consultation.
A strong demand for commercial floorspace is anticipated, particularly for office uses which will comprise 57% of the additional 11.9 million square metres of commercial floorspace required towards 2031 to meet the projected demand.
In addition to this, a significant demand for industrial land has been identified. Projections for the State Significant Industrial Precincts (SSIPs) indicate:
- The Southern SSIP is likely to exhaust all supply by the mid 2020s.
- The Western SSIP has approximately 15 years supply of zoned land and only 6 years supply of unzoned land.
- 80% of industrial land already consumed in SSIPs.
Metropolitan Melbourne is estimated to have approximately 23 years supply of zoned land and approximately 15 years supply of unzoned land that has been identified for future industrial purposes.
The Suburban Rail Loop Transport Planning Project
The Addendum acknowledges the future delivery of the new Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), a city-shaping project which will complement the Metro Tunnel projects already underway.
The SRL includes a new orbital rail line connecting every major railway line from the Frankston line to the Werribee line, with a connection to Melbourne Airport, and includes several new stations and integrated precinct development. New stations include Melbourne Airport, Bundoora, Monash and Doncaster.
Three new transport super hubs will provide interchanges connecting regional passengers to the SRL. The transport super hubs include Clayton, Broadmeadows and Sunshine.
As the SRL develops, there will be a need to integrate land use and transport planning around key transport hubs as part of the project.
Stage 1 of the project from Cheltenham to Box Hill is projected to commence in 2022.
Identification of Priority Precincts
The Addendum also designates a selection of state significant places as Priority Precincts. The designation recognises that these precincts will be a priority location to accommodate population growth, economic activity and maximise government investment. The initial priority precincts will be:
- Arden
- Fishermans Bend
- Footscray
- Parkville
- Richmond to Docklands
- Sunshine
What does this mean for planning in Victoria?
The Addendum to Plan Melbourne outlines a commitment to appropriately review and refine the metropolitan strategy towards 2051 to ensure that it remains relevant and current.
The population forecasts outline the need to accommodate a greater residential population in key areas of the metropolitan area.
The need for sufficient industrial and commercial land is also significant.
To discuss the implications for this report on your project, local area or housing strategy, please contact our office on 9329 2288 or email us at mail@glossopco.com.au.
